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- Hybrid interference = non-military practices for mostly-covert manipulation of other states’ strategic interests. Different to hybrid warfare, which is basically indirect military conflict (e.g. arming insurgencies). HI usually functions as a wedge strategy to undermine target cohesion, without actively raising perception of an external threat.
- Three major strategies for HI:
- Clandestine diplomacy - backing radical political parties and protest movements, supporting proxy groups, creating polarised political environment. Examples: Iran support for Hezbollah in Lebanon, Turkey encouraging Turkish diaspora in Europe to reject Western values, China targeting Australian ethnic Chinese communities.
- Geoeconomics - making use of strategic economic relationships (e.g. withholding/preferring trade with some parties), capturing strategic sectors via possibly-disguised investment, fostering business links with influential elites to encourage positive messaging. Examples: Russia using gas sales to wedge European nations, Chinese companies hiring prominent Australian politicians and Chinese money flowing to Australian parties via Chinese business elites.
- Disinformation - broad use of false or overamplified information to stir up polarisation and reduce cohesion. Examples: Russian campaigns around US and EU elections, Chinese purchases of foreign media.
- These elements reinforce each other, e.g. economic purchase of media creates channel for disinformation, which creates conditions for proxy radical parties.
- Core features of Western society create vulnerabilities to HI: states are deliberately restrained in regulating speech and the economy, and societies are deliberately pluralistic and open to many voices. However, these features are also the key to resisting HI, via a whole-of-society response.
- Deterrence theory considers both denial/resilience and punishment/compellence.
- Denial/resilience: boosting Western societies’ ability to resist interference. Examples: encouraging citizen activism via NGOs/media organisations (e.g. Bellingcat investigation of Skripal poisoning), media fake news literacy programs, regulated transparency on social media platforms and political advertising, connecting vulnerable parties (e.g. media/NGOs/political groups) to intelligence and law enforcement, encouraging transparency in foreign engagement (e.g. Aus FITS register), encouraging transparency in money flows and comprehensive multi-hop foreign investment screening, preventing foreign acquisitions in strategic sectors, preventing foreign funding of domestic political groups, etc.
- Punishment/compellence: credible countermeasures if interference continues. Examples: traditional measures such as economic sanctions (e.g. Russia has been severely hurt by current sanctions, and those could be taken further), strengthening support for human rights and democracy promotion within autocratic states to shift the contest to their home turf, encouraging civil society groups in similar ways, supporting anti-authoritarian political dissent and expression within diaspora communities, more active measures such as cyber retaliation. Most of these measures involve intensifying a commitment to democratic open society and more heavily engaging and promoting civil society groups, rather than trying to tightly close down and regulate speech and media.